Chapter 2

Figures converted from Indonesian rupiah at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates for the rate table (forward estimates use the current rate). Ratios, margins, multiples, per-share growth, and percentages are unitless and unchanged.

Financials and Estimates

Five years of statements describe a business whose revenue rose 54% — from $605 million in 2021 to $800 million in 2025 — while earnings per share went nowhere, holding at roughly $0.0041 in both bookend years. The gap is explained inside the accounts: growth has decelerated as the core tower-lease line flattened, finance costs still absorb roughly two-fifths of operating profit, and successive equity raises spread the profit over more shares. Consensus expects low-single-digit revenue growth and easing returns through 2028.

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Financial Highlights and Key Ratios [1] [2]; free cash flow derived as operating cash flow less capex.

Revenue climbed; per-share earnings did not

Revenue growth has faded steadily since the 2021 acquisition of Indosat's tower portfolio, which drove the 27.8% jump into 2022. The three years since have run +6.4%, +8.5% and +4.6% — a business settling into mid-single-digit growth [3]. Operating profit tracked revenue, rising 39% over four years to $450 million. Net profit did not: it moved from $240 million in 2021 to $221 million in 2025, and basic earnings per share printed roughly $0.0048, $0.0045, $0.0042, $0.0041, $0.0041 across the five years [4]. (Per-share profit in rupiah was flat at Rp69, Rp69, Rp65, Rp67, Rp69; the dollar path also reflects rupiah depreciation.)

Source: FY2023 and FY2025 Annual Reports, Financial Highlights; net profit attributable to owners of the parent [5] [6].

Two effects hold the bottom line down. The first is where the growth comes from; the second is what happens between operating profit and the shareholder.

Where growth is coming from — and where it is not

The company reports revenue in three lines. Tower tenancies — the long-term, non-cancellable lease income that defines the landlord model — grew just 2.1% and 2.4% in the last two years, from $542 million in 2023 to $524 million in 2025 [7]. All the top-line growth is in the adjacent businesses: VSAT and wireline (fibre) revenue rose 28.6% then 31.4% to $93 million, and services and other rose to $183 million. The tower line, 71% of revenue in 2023, is down to 65% in 2025. (The dollar tower line dips where rupiah revenue rose because the rupiah weakened over the period; the 2.1% and 2.4% growth rates are the rupiah figures.)

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Operational Highlights (Revenue by Line) [8].

That mix shift is visible in margins. Group EBITDA margin held above 86% in 2021–2022 and has since drifted to 85.0%, 84.0% and 82.3% [9]. The lower-margin fibre and services lines are doing the growing, so the blended margin erodes even as absolute EBITDA rises. An 82% EBITDA margin remains exceptional for any business; the point is the direction, and its source in the revenue mix rather than in cost inflation.

From operating profit to net profit: the finance-cost wedge

The larger drag sits below operating profit. In 2025, operating profit of $450 million became profit for the year of $221 million. Net finance cost of $185 million — interest on roughly $2.7 billion of bank loans and bonds — took 41% of operating profit, and Indonesia's final-tax regime on tower rental took a further $46 million [10]. Between them, roughly half of operating profit never reaches the income line.

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss and Financial Highlights [11] [12].

This wedge is the reason a landlord with 82% EBITDA margins reports a ~28% net margin, and it is also where the deleveraging matters. Finance cost was already flat year-on-year ($195 million in 2024, $185 million in 2025) even as average debt rose, and the second-half 2025 debt reduction — gross borrowings fell from $3.19 billion to $2.67 billion — lands mostly in future years [13]. Lower interest expense is the clearest path by which flat operating profit could still lift earnings per share.

Cash generation and the balance-sheet reset

Cash conversion is the strongest part of the record. Operating cash flow rose every year, reaching $621 million in 2025, while capital expenditure fell to $197 million from $280 million as tower building slowed. Free cash flow — operating cash flow less capex — stepped up to $424 million, from $299 million a year earlier [14]. Against net profit of $221 million, that is cash generation well ahead of accounting earnings — the depreciation on a large tower base is a non-cash charge, so reported profit understates the cash the assets throw off.

Source: audited consolidated statements of cash flows, FY2020–FY2025; capex is purchases of fixed assets, free cash flow derived [15].

That cash, plus a $330 million rights issue, funded a genuine reset of the balance sheet. Equity rose from $1.19 billion to $1.63 billion, gross debt fell $0.51 billion, and net debt to EBITDA dropped to 3.7x from 4.6x — the sharpest single-year deleveraging in the five-year record [16]. The equity injection is also why reported return on equity fell — from 20.0% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2025 — despite higher profit: the denominator grew faster than the numerator [17]. The reset leaned on fresh equity, not only on internal cash; but with free cash flow now above $420 million, the business can continue reducing debt from its own generation.

Source: FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 Annual Reports, Financial Highlights and Key Ratios; free cash flow derived from cash-flow statements [18] [19] [20].

What consensus expects

Thirteen analysts cover the stock, and their forward view is modest. Revenue is seen at $780 million in 2026 and $798 million in 2027 — roughly 4.5% then 2.3% growth in rupiah — with EBITDA edging from $629 million toward $649 million [21]. Earnings per share are expected to dip in 2026 — the full-year effect of the enlarged share count from the 2025 rights issue — before recovering through 2027 and 2028, still barely above the level posted in 2021. Consensus return on equity eases from the mid-teens toward roughly 12.5% by 2028. (Dollar revenue is flat-to-down across the forecast because forward figures are converted at the current, weaker rate; the growth is in the rupiah accounts.)

Sources: FY2024–FY2025 actuals from Financial Highlights [22]; FY2026–FY2029 consensus estimates [23].

The consensus price target is about $0.038 (median $0.037; range $0.022–$0.053), about 65% above the recent $0.023, with nine of thirteen analysts at their strongest buy rating and none negative [24]. The dividend is expected to grow from roughly $0.0011 per share for 2025 toward $0.0012 by 2027 — a yield near 5% at the current price, and one the free-cash-flow profile can cover several times over. The tension is plain in the numbers: analysts pair low-single-digit operating growth and a declining return on equity with a target two-thirds above the market price. The bridge between the two is deleveraging and a re-rating of the multiple, not a re-acceleration of the business — a reconciliation the valuation and competition chapters take up.

What would change the read

The financials support a specific reading: this is a cash-rich, deleveraging landlord whose aggregate profit grows slowly and whose per-share earnings have been flat, not a business in decline. Three things would move that read. If tower-tenancy revenue — the durable core — resumed mid-single-digit growth rather than the ~2% of the last two years, the low-growth label would weaken. If finance costs fell materially as the lower debt balance flows through 2026–2027, flat operating profit could still produce visible EPS growth. And if capex re-accelerates toward the $250–350 million consensus pencils in for later years, the 2025 free-cash-flow step-up would prove partly a timing effect rather than a durable new level.